Fantasy Football 2022 Draft Prep: Trey Lance’s preseason suggests there’s more downside than expected

Like most people, Kyle Shanahan wishes he had more time. Not to spend with family or go on vacation necessarily, but to get second-year quarterback Trey Lance ready for the upcoming 2022 season.

“I would love to get Trey more practice and everything, more experience,” Shanahan told reporters last week. “[B]ut we’ve run out of those games, and he’s as ready to go as he can be. He needs to get in these real games now and start playing. There’s going to be times he makes some mistakes, and he’s got to learn from them and find a way to still win the game and overcome some of those things as he learns on the run.”

That admission isn’t what you want to hear. It means Lance isn’t as far along as a passer as other top picks usually are, and you could see it in his most recent preseason game against the Texans.

Lance completed 7 of 11 passes last week but his longest completion went 15 yards to his fullback when he found him alone on the sideline after rolling out of the pocket. He was off-target on several throws both in the sense of missing open receivers and in forcing his receivers to adjust to his passes and cost themselves yards after catch opportunities. It felt like his feet weren’t set on half of his throws.

Perhaps worst of all, Lance struggled with the Texans’ pass rush getting after him. At the first sign of heat from the defense, Lance would move out of the pocket and struggle to keep his eyes downfield and identify open targets. It happened when he fired a lawn dart a few yards in front of Brandon Aiyuk when he should have just thrown it at Aiyuk; it happened when he didn’t throw with anticipation on a deep dig to Deebo Samuel; and it happened when he checked down to Jeff Wilson instead of seeing Aiyuk or George Kittle open for first downs.

Lance’s best throw from the preseason was an on-target deep ball to Danny Gray against the Packers, helped in part by his recognition of coverage in his favor before the snap. It’s hard to pick a second-best throw from the remaining 10 completions that totaled 65 yards.

It’s not just the preseason games either — beat reports from 49ers practices, including their joint scrimmage against the Vikings, offered daily up-and-down performances from Lance. That’s not what you want to see from a second-year should-be phenom. He shouldn’t be learning “on the run.”

That’s enough reason to be cautious with Lance when you’re drafting, but there’s more. The 49ers have had offensive line issues all August long. The interior of the line is not exactly as strong as it was this time last year — or this time last January. Lance’s inexperience against NFL pass rushes will magnify the issue.

And there’s even more: This week we should learn the fate of Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco. If the 49ers cut him or trade him, Lance and his fans should breathe a sigh of relief because it means Lance will start for the foreseeable future. If they don’t move on from Garoppolo, it’s another admission from Shanahan and the coaching staff that Lance isn’t all the way ready and they need a Plan B in case Plan A turns into multiple Ls.

Don’t even look at the 49ers schedule after Week 2. They play the Bears and Seahawks to start the year (that’ll help Lance build some confidence), but then they’ll face playoff contenders in nine of their next 11 games including the Rams twice.

The world has already waited a year for Lance to take the field and play brilliantly. The fact that we’ve seen him sparingly deliver through minimal parts of last season and flashes of this preseason is concerning. His upside is almost entirely reliant on him rushing for a ton of yards.

It keeps Lance from being part of some specific draft strategy, and it absolutely makes him someone you shouldn’t reach for. Lance also shouldn’t be your only rostered quarterback. Round 9 is absolutely the earliest you should think about taking him, but Round 10 would really negate the risk versus reward.