New England isn’t entering this game with a ton of firepower, especially if Bailey Zappe is pressed into starting duties, thanks to injuries to Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer. The Patriots nearly scored a massive upset win over the Packers with Zappe at quarterback, but their final possession of regulation in that game — a three-and-out that saw them gain 9 yards before punting — likely best defines the state of their offense with the third-string rookie, who threw for 99 yards and his first career touchdown on 15 attempts Sunday.
Match that up with a Lions offense that is outperforming expectations, and you have a nice little setup for an upset. Detroit — yes, Detroit — currently ranks first in the NFL in total and scoring offense, while Jared Goff is throwing the Lions into a top-five ranking in passing. Detroit has scored 24-plus points in six straight games dating back to Week 17 of last season, tying for the second-longest such streak in franchise history. The Lions’ biggest issue is their defense, which ranks last in points and yards allowed per game.
The equalizer here should be New England’s defense, but keeping the Lions within striking range for Zappe and Co. is a big ask. New England ranks 22nd in points allowed per game at 24.5, which is 10.5 less per game than what Detroit is putting on the board.
We’ve learned the NFL can be a fickle and unpredictable beast. But I feel pretty good about this one, if only because we might see Zappe again this weekend. If I had to choose between Zappe and Goff, I’m going with the latter — even taking into account Goff’s career numbers against Bill Belichick (51.6 completion rate, 2:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 57.7 passer rating in three games, including Super Bowl LIII).
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