We are heading into yet another loaded weekend for boxing, with big events set featuring top talents and big name stars. Headlining the weekend’s action, at least in terms of attention, is the Showtime pay-per-view headliner between UFC legend Anderson Silva and social media superstar Jake Paul (9 p.m. ET, Showtime PPV).
Earlier in the day, one of the greatest fighters in women’s boxing history returns to the ring as Katie Taylor defends her undisputed lightweight title against Karen Elizabeth Carabajal (2 p.m., DAZN). Vasiliy Lomachenko will also be in action when the pound-for-pound great takes on Jamaine Ortiz in a lightweight battle (6:15 p.m., ESPN+).
Rounding out Saturday’s action is another lightweight fight as Joseph “JoJo” Diaz Jr. battles undefeated power puncher William Zepeda (9 p.m., DAZN) in a fight that puts the loser at a significant disadvantage in a talent-loaded division.
With such a loaded slate, let’s take a look at our three best bets for the weekend with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
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Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. Jamaine Ortiz under 10.5 rounds (-105)
I predicted Lomachenko by knockout in the middle rounds in our official preview. The fight going under 10.5 actually gives you a better price than simply taking Lomachenko by KO, TKO or DQ (-135). Ortiz is a good fighter, but he just doesn’t do anything nearly as well as Lomachenko and Lomachenko has been dominant since losing to Teofimo Lopez. Richard Commey and Masayoshi Nakatani are both iron-tough fighters and Lomachenko put both down — and stopped Nakatani. Lomachenko should do whatever he wants in this one and do so while trying to make a statement and secure a shot at Devin Haney and the undisputed lightweight championship. Take the under, and if you feel like throwing a dart at some longer odds to spice things up, Lomachenko in Rounds 4 to 6 is +500 and Rounds 7 to 9 is +325.
Anderson Silva via decision (+500) vs. Jake Paul
This is something of a play based on principle more than anything else. While I think Paul is going to win this fight, likely by knockout, the +500 line is implying odds at 16.67%. Silva by knockout is sitting at +240. Those two lines should be flipped as Silva stopping Paul is far less likely than using his frustrating, unorthodox style to bank enough rounds to get his hand raised by decision. Sometimes you have to take the value play even if it goes against your expectation for a fight.
Joseph Diaz (+145) vs. William Zepeda
Zepeda has the hype of a 26-0 record and big, flashy power. Diaz is also fighting one weight class higher than where he was his best and that means facing a six-inch reach disadvantage, as well. So, it’s easy to see why Zepeda is the slight favorite heading into the fight. However, Zepeda didn’t look quite as dynamic against Rene Alvarado in his most recent outing and his power didn’t do much against a higher-level of opponent. Diaz is notoriously durable and is very good at working his way to the inside, which will negate Zepeda’s reach advantage. Zepeda showed an inability to manage distance against Alvarado and that could be his downfall against someone as good at infighting as Diaz.
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