College Football Playoff rankings predictions: What the CFP top 25 could look like in Week 11

Nine ranked teams lost after the first College Football Playoff rankings released. How could that shake up Week 11’s edition of the rankings? I predict the fallout after a wild week.

The second of six CFP top 25 reveals happens at 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 8 on ESPN (here’s the full schedule; the third rankings are Nov. 15). Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction of how the committee could rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I take a look at head-to-head results, schedule strength, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams how I think the CFP committee will do so. You can read the CFP committee’s official protocols here.

WEEK 10 RECAP: No. 3 Georgia rocks No. 1 Tennessee, No. 10 LSU walks off vs. No. 6 Alabama, No. 4 Clemson humbled in Week 10

College Football Playoff rankings predictions: Top 25 projections Week 11

1. Georgia (9-0) | Prev: 3 — If Georgia isn’t No. 1 after defeating the then-No. 1 team in the country, it will surprise everyone. The Bulldogs have the best win of any undefeated team and are the defending national champions. That’s deserving of the top spot.
2. Ohio State (9-0) | Prev: 2 — Ohio State struggled offensively in the elements, but still walked away with a win over Northwestern. Every other undefeated team ranked below the Buckeyes faced difficulties of their own last week, so no one supplants Ohio State from No. 2 
3. Michigan (9-0) | Prev: 5 — The Wolverines trailed Rutgers at halftime before dominating the second half. Nonetheless, Michigan rises with two teams above it losing.
4. Tennessee (8-1) | Prev: 1 — Tennessee over an undefeated TCU? Yes, that will surely make headlines, but the Vols have wins over LSU, Alabama and Kentucky. One loss doesn’t drop Tennessee out of the playoff hunt.
5. TCU (9-0) | Prev: 7 — TCU was ranked behind Alabama last week because “They’ve gotten behind in some games.” Against Texas Tech, the Horned Frogs trailed entering the fourth quarter. I don’t see the committee’s reasoning changing with that performance.
6. Oregon (8-1) | Prev: 8 — After a Boobie Miles-like performance from quarterback Bo Nix where he threw, ran and caught a touchdown, Oregon has won eight games in a row.
7. LSU (7-2) | Prev: 10 — After winning a 32-31 thriller, LSU controls its destiny in the SEC West. Could the Tigers and first-year head coach Brian Kelly become the first two-loss team to make the playoffs?
8. Southern California (8-1) | Prev: 9 — The Trojans allowed Cal to score 21 fourth-quarter points in its latest win. Southern California has the talent but hasn’t been dominant in recent weeks.
9. Alabama (7-2) | Prev: 6 — Alabama only drops three spots because it lost in overtime. However, the Crimson Tide are need a CFP miracle if it hopes to make the playoffs.
10. Ole Miss (8-1) | Prev: 11 — Ole Miss had a bye last week. The Rebels could end up swapping spots with Alabama in this week’s rankings, but I’ll let the two schools meet on the gridiron first before raising the Rebels.
11. UCLA (8-1) | Prev: 12 — The Bruins control their destiny to reach the Pac-12 championship game, but will have to avoid a classic trap game in Week 11.
12. Utah (7-2) | Prev: 14 — Utah has won three straight games after defeating Arizona 45-20.
13. Clemson (8-1) | Prev: 4 — Clemson drops nine spots after an embarrassing loss to Notre Dame. I think the Tigers should stay ranked above a two-blowout-loss Penn State team and ACC foe North Carolina in the rankings, so the free-fall stops here.
14. Penn State (7-2) | Prev: 15 — The Nittany Lions handled Indiana 45-14. They continue to look like the Big Ten’s third-best team.
15. North Carolina (8-1) | Prev: 17 — North Carolina only beat Virginia by three points, but the Tar Heels are just a win away from clinching an ACC Championship game berth.
16. Texas (6-3) | Prev: 24 — Texas may not be “back” to its national title-winning way, but the Longhorns are competitive, remaining in the Big 12 title race after a ranked win over Kansas State
17. Tulane (8-1) | Prev: 19 — A win over Kansas State looks worse after the Wildcats lost another game, but Tulane’s hopes of a New Year’s Six Bowl remain alive after another win.
18. Notre Dame (6-3) | Prev: NR — Notre Dame picked up a dominant win over Clemson, shutting out the Tigers through three quarters. Notre Dame now holds wins over each of the ACC’s divisional leaders. The Fighting Irish have come a long way from an 0-2 start, picking up ranked wins in back-to-back weeks.
19. NC State (7-2) | Prev: 22 — NC State defeated Wake Forest, picking up its first ranked victory of the season.
20. Washington (7-2) | Prev: NR — Washington picked up a ranked win over then-No. 23 Oregon State. The Huskies are 7-2 with a huge matchup against Oregon upcoming.
21. Illinois (7-2) | Prev: 16 — Illinois lost to a depleted Michigan State team 23-15. The Fighting Illini remain atop the Big Ten West, but another loss dims their playoff hopes.
22. Kansas State (6-3) | Prev: 13 — Kansas State has lost two of its last three games, but one win during that stretch came against a then-ranked Oklahoma State team. The Wildcats stay in the ranking because all three of their losses came to currently ranked teams.
23. UCF (7-2) | Prev: 25 — UCF needed the fourth quarter to defeat Memphis 35-28. The Knights stay in the rankings with a win.
24. Liberty (8-1) | Prev: NR — Liberty won its sixth straight game, defeating Arkansas 21-19.
25. Baylor (6-3) | Prev: NR — Baylor gets the nod for the final spot over schools like Florida State, Cincinnati and Kentucky. The Bears have a three-game win streak, the longest of any of the schools considered for No. 25.

Dropped out: Oklahoma State (18), Syracuse (20), Wake Forest (21), Oregon State (23)

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

Notable College Football Playoff rankings questions

How far does Tennessee drop?

Tennessee opened the initial College Football Playoff rankings at No. 1, but lost its first game to Georgia in Week 10. The Vols were dominated throughout much of the game, but the 14-point margin of defeat doesn’t look that bad on paper.

Tennessee also has wins against LSU (by 27), Alabama and Kentucky (by 38). All three of those teams could be ranked in Week 11, with potentially two of the teams in the top 10. The Vols still have an impressive resume that could keep it in the top four. Keep in mind, the top-ranked team in the first College Football Playoff rankings has made the playoffs in each of the last seven seasons.

GO DAWGS: How Georgia ended Rocky Top’s reign

Where do Alabama and Clemson land?

Alabama and Clemson lost on the same day for the first time since Nov. 30, 2013 (the Kick Six game). The Crimson Tide and Tigers will assuredly fall in Week 11’s rankings. Alabama had to fortune of losing in overtime to the tenth-ranked team in the country, so that could be enough to keep the Tide inside the top 10. 

UNDEFEATED TRACKER: FBS teams with perfect seasons so far 

Meanwhile, Clemson lost to an unranked Notre Dame team, getting shut out through three quarters. Clemson hasn’t been overly impressive in its handful of ranked wins this year, with quarterback changes and offensive struggles defining the season. The first loss of the season could drop the Tigers significantly in the rankings.