NFL picks, predictions for Week 10: Bills bounce back vs. Vikings; Chargers upset 49ers; Rams roll over Cardinals

The Week 10 NFL schedule features one matchup between teams with winning records, but it’s a beauty. 

The Minnesota Vikings travel to face the Buffalo Bills in what could be considered a potential Super Bowl LVII preview. Minnesota (7-1) is on a six-game winning streak with first-year coach Kevin O’Connell and quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Bills have one of the top MVP candidates in Josh Allen, and coach Sean McDermott have led Buffalo to seven consecutive playoff victories (including postseason). 

The Sunday Night Football matchup between the Chargers (5-3) and 49ers (4-4) is the next-best matchup record wise and should be good, and there is an early-morning matchup in Munich, Germany between the surprising Seahawks (6-3) and Buccaneers (4-5). 

All that on a weekend where the classic rivalry matchup between the Cowboys (6-2) and Packers (3-6) has a different feel now. This time, it’s Mike McCarthy that has the better team, and Aaron Rodgers is searching for answers with the Packers on a five-game losing streak. 

Those are the highlights of the Week 10 schedule. A look at our track record this season: 

Record: 78-57-1

Here are our straight-up picks for Week 10 (lines courtesy of BetMGM): 

POWER RANKINGS: Packers, Rams, Colts fall with fading playoff hopes; Jets, Bengals climb for Week 10

NFL picks, predictions for Week 10

• Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video 

These teams just played a 37-34 thriller in Week 8. The Panthers are coming off a listless performance in a road loss to Baltimore, and the Falcons need more in the passing game out of Marcus Mariota. Will P.J. Walker get the start at quarterback for Carolina? Or will Baker Mayfield and Mariota duel in a battle of two Heisman Trophy winners? The Panthers win a close one in the latter scenario. 

Pick: Panthers 24, Falcons 21 

• Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) 

Sunday, 9:30 a.m., NFL Network 

We have early-morning football at Allianz Arena. Tom Brady led the Buccaneers to a potential season-changing victory against the Rams in Week 9, and now the challenge is to slow down a Seattle team riding a four-game winning streak behind Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker III. Tampa Bay slows that combination down, and Brady gets the Buccaneers back to .500. Keep in mind all the games in the NFL International Series have been decided by five points or less. 

Pick: Buccaneers 23, Seahawks 22

• Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)  

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX

The Bills were mortal in a loss to the Jets in Week 9, and that should mean a refocused Josh Allen at home against the Vikings, who rank 27th in the league in passing defense (256.9). This is Stefon Diggs’ first game against his former team, and he’ll put on a show in front of the home crowd. Buffalo bounces back in style. 

Pick: Bills 31, Vikings 21 

• Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-3) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX

The Bears have the leagues’ top rushing offense, mostly because of Justin Fields – who has averaged 102 rushing yards per game the last four weeks. Detroit is 31st in the league in run defense (148.8). Chicago will get the victory here if they protect the football. 

Pick: Bears 26, Lions 24

• Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)  

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Jacksonville is an improved team, so the Chiefs cannot be in look-ahead mode here at Arrowhead Stadium. Look for Kansas City to emphasize the running game early to protect Patrick Mahomes II – who had 68 passing attempts in Week 9. Trevor Lawrence will make a few splash plays in the first half, but look for the Chiefs to turn up the pass rush when they pull ahead. 

Pick: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 20 

• Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-4) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Here is the shootout of the day. Both teams allow 24.9 points per game. Jacoby Brissett, who played for Miami last season, should have some success through the air. Cleveland’s pass defense, however, will have too many breakdowns against Miami’s high-powered passing game around Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The over (48.5) looks almost too easy. 

Pick: Dolphins 38, Browns 33

• Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

This is a great individual matchup between running backs Saquon Barkley (779 yards) and Dameon Pierce (668 yards), but the Texans’ lack of defense will be the problem again on the road. Brian Daboll will have the Giants in good position for a second-half playoff run with another close home victory. 

Pick: Giants 28, Texans 24

• New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX

The Steelers had a bye week, and the Saints had a short week. New Orleans also has the worst turnover differential in the NFL. Kenny Pickett shows progress, Najee Harris gets the running game going and T.J. Watt’s potential return energizes Pittsburgh. The Steelers improve their home record to 2-2. 

Pick: Steelers 24, Saints 22 

• Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-3) 

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Ryan Tannehill should be able to return for the Titans. The last two weeks were a good experience for rookie Malik Willis, but Tannehill should provide a boost against a tough Denver defense that has allowed more than 21 points only once this season. This is a tempting upset pick, but we will stick with the home team. 

Pick: Titans 23, Broncos 19

• Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders (-6) 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

Colts interim coach Jeff Saturday will make his debut against the Raiders, where Josh McDaniels is already finding a hot seat. That makes this an incredibly unpredictable environment for two struggling teams. Indianapolis averages 9.0 points per game on the road. If Las Vegas cannot take advantage of that, then maybe that hot seat is deserved. 

Pick: Raiders 27, Colts 18 

• Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX

It’s a now-or-next-year-moment for the Packers, who simply have not found the rhythm in a five-game losing streak. Offensive line issues won’t help against a Micah Parsons-led pass rush, and Dallas coach Mike McCarthy will stick with the running game in the reunion matchup with Aaron Rodgers. The Packers quarterback has a track record of success against Dallas, but the problem for Green Bay is Rogers’ play is only part of the problem right now. The Cowboys will expose that. 

Pick: Cowboys 27, Packers 21 

• Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3) 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m., FOX

Two NFC West disappointments square off, and the loser likely will be all but out of the playoff mix without some second-half help. The Rams rank 29th in the NFL in scoring offense and have cleared 24 points only one time this season. The Cardinals have allowed 30 or more points in three straight games. If the Rams cannot get right here, then will it happen? 

Pick: Rams 28, Cardinals 24

• Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC 

Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell are among the key players who could return from injuries from the 49ers out of the bye week, and Christian McCaffrey should be more comfortable in the offense. The Chargers are 3-1 on the road this season, and Justin Herbert has better numbers across the board in that situation. It’s a prime-time upset. 

Pick: Chargers 28, 49ers 27 

• Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) 

Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN

Jalen Hurts gets another prime-time game, and he’ll be up against an improved Washington defense. Hurts, however, will present issues for the Commanders, who are 1-4 when they allow more than 200 yards passing to the other team. Hurts and A.J. Brown will connect for two more scores, and the Eagles barrel toward the second half of the season with a 9-0 record. 

Pick: Eagles 31, Commanders 21