Leafs “dodged massive bullet” not signing Jack Campbell, says Toronto hockey writer. But who will have last laugh?

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This in from hockey writer Ryan Smitheram of the Maple Leafs Insider hockey report, his take on Jack Campbell’s slow start with the Edmonton Oilers:

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“So far, it looks like Kyle Dubas dodged a massive bullet by not giving Campbell the extra 2 years on the contract he wanted. Oilers fans laughed at the Leafs when they acquired Matt Murray and signed Ilya Samsonov in free agency and praised Campbell as their own saviour. My oh my, how the tables have turned. On social media, Oilers fans want the team to trade Campbell, waive him, or buy him out at the end of the season.”

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Smitheram concluded with some gentle chiding of Campbell for not accepting a shorter term deal in Toronto: “In the end, he got his money, but now he might lose the job that he held out to get.”

My take

1. Jack Campbell is indeed off to a wretched start with the Oilers. If I was a Leafs fan or hockey writer or both I might also be wondering if Toronto had dodged a bullet. It’s also fair comment to suggest that some Oilers fans believe that the Oilers have taken a self-inflicted wound with Campbell’s five-year, $5 million contract. I’ve seen that notion kicked around.

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2. But not all Oilers fan feel this way. I’m on the fence with Campbell, especially given the way that almost all NHL goalies ride a perpetual rollercoaster of highs and lows, streaks of strong performance and streaks where the goalie gets blasted big time. Campbell is on such a nasty streak right now.

3. His .873 save percentage ranks 54th out of 57 NHL goalies who have played five or more games this year. In Toronto, Samsonov has a .921 save percentage so far, with back-up Erik Kallgren at .893 (not so much better than Campbell). But last season both Campbell and Stuart Skinner, who has been red hot to start the year with an .932 save percentage, went on hot and cold streaks, as did Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen, their predecessors in Edmonton. Hot and cold streaks aren’t anomalies, they are the norm for most NHL goalies.

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4. Campbell had a .946 save percentage in his first 18 games for Toronto, then later went on a 15 game run with an .872 save percentage. We’ll see if he can turn around his game here but I certainly would not bet against him at this point. He’s due to figure out.

5. It might also be worth noting that Edmonton and a number of other NHL teams have done extremely well in recent years with former Leafs. Ex-Leaf Zach Hyman has been Edmonton’s best winger. Cody Ceci and Tyson Barrie provide solid two-way play on defence. All three are crucial players on a good Oilers team. Young Sean Durzi has become a solid Top 4 d-man in Los Angeles, with another former Leaf Carl Grundstrom providing gritty two-way play for the Kings as well. Trevor Moore in L.A. also strikes me as a helluva player. Mason Marchment ripped it up in Florida last year and earned a big contract with Dallas. Ilya Mikheyev is off to a promising start in Vancouver. Frederik Andersen had a strong season in net in Carolina last year (though he’s been more iffy so far this year). Ilya Lyubushkin is a battering ram of a d-man for Buffalo. Nazem Kadri helped Colorado to a Stanley Cup last season.

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Hyman, Kadri, Ceci, Marchment, Grundstrom, Moore, Mikheyev, Barrie, Durzi, Lyubushkin and Andersen —  have I forgotten anyone? Not at all a bad group of players. Some might argue they are much superior to the players Toronto kept in their stead, though it’s fair to say that Toronto’s spending on star players meant it couldn’t afford to keep all these players due to salary cap concerns. But some players were traded away, along with high draft picks, in a bid to bring in aging vets to help Toronto win a Cup. Perhaps that strategy will finally pay off this year. Or not. We’ll see.

5. Jack Campbell came at a huge price to the Oilers. The team made a massive bet indeed on this goalie. But if you look at his overall record, Campbell has put together six decent-to-good professional hockey seasons in a row, playing well consistently enough to take him from the ECHL to a big contract in the NHL.

He’s gotten the job done before. He’ll do so again.

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