New York’s Edwin Díaz (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)
In addition to the ensuing 10 with a ton of risk attached, here are a few others for whom you have to wonder if the return on investment will be worth it, listed in alphabetical order.
Mike Clevinger, RHP, San Diego Padres ($8.5 million in 2022): Clevinger missed all of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, and this year both the velocity on his fastball and the break on his slider were nowhere near what they used to be. He turns 32 in December, but maybe he settles for a one-year “prove it” deal before trying to get a multiyear deal next offseason.
Edwin Díaz, RHP, New York Mets ($10.2 million in 2022): He’s going to get paid like he’s the best reliever in baseball, because he was this season. But throughout his career, Díaz has been really good in even-numbered years and nothing special in the odd ones. There’s no logic behind it, but it’s worth remembering that we’ve previously seen him flourish in one season and then wilt in the next.
Joey Gallo, LF/DH, Los Angeles Dodgers ($10.28 million in 2022): Is it really a risk or just an acceptance that you’re paying for a guy coming off a lackluster slugging year who is likely to finish any season with more than twice as many strikeouts as hits? Gallo only turns 29 in November, though, so it won’t be a surprise if someone gives him a contract on par with what Jorge Soler got last offseason (three years, $36 million).
J.D. Martinez, DH, Boston Red Sox ($19.35 million in 2022): Martinez is 35 now and is no longer the power hitter that he was from 2015-19. He’s still a good enough hitter to be worth an eight-figure, one-year deal, but any sort of multiyear contract could be a disaster.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets ($7 million in 2022): Nimmo picked a fantastic time to have the best season of his career. With the exception of Aaron Judge, there’s a case to be made that Nimmo is the best outfielder in this year’s free-agent class. But we’re talking about a career .269 hitter with modest power, so it would be wild if he ends up getting Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos or Starling Marte money ($20-ish million per year on four- to five-year deals).
Carlos Rodón, LHP, San Francisco Giants ($21.5 million in 2022): Rodón was awesome in both 2021 and 2022, but his lack of durability from 2017-20 (41 starts) has to at least come into consideration for any team thinking about paying his supposed market value of $126.6 million for four years.
Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves ($10 million in 2022): Like Nimmo, Swanson is a solid player who finally put it all together at the right time. He’s one of four big-name shortstops hitting free agency this offseason, although he’s pretty clearly a step behind Trea Turner, Carlos Correa and (if he declines his player option) Xander Bogaerts. Whether he’s actually worth $25 million (or more) per year remains to be seen.
Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies ($21 million in 2022): Syndergaard was…fine. And he didn’t get hurt. That was the main goal of this season after missing almost all of both 2020 and 2021. But he wasn’t the Thor of old, but the 30-year-old is surely going to want a long-term deal anyway.
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