Odds can be an odd thing, even when they seem to be a sure thing.
Remember a couple of years ago when prognosticators’ theorems strongly suggested the Nashville Predators were all but a lock to miss the NHL playoffs with about two months left in the season?
Multiple simulations by multiple outlets gave Nashville less than a 1% chance of playing beyond the regular season.
The Predators went ahead and made it anyway.
It’s understandable that that sort of math doesn’t favor the Predators again this season. Going into the weekend’s Christmas break, moneypuck.com put their postseason chances at 15.9%, the bottom third of the league.
Playoffs? Why are we talking playoffs in late December?
Because, why not?
At the risk of being wrong again, I’m going to go ahead and disagree with those algorithms and predict the Predators, who have the second-longest playoff streak in the NHL behind the Pittsburgh Penguins, will qualify for the postseason for the ninth consecutive season.
Why?
Because, why not?
The Predators’ fate is not that simple, of course. So here are a few reasons why I believe they’ll buck the odds and algorithms again, despite being 14-13-5 and in sixth place in the Central Division:
Juuse Saros
The 27-year-old goalie is one common denominator when it comes to the Predators making the playoffs in recent seasons. He basically willed that less-than-1% team in 2021, when he solidified his status as an elite goalie. Last season he was named an All-Star and Vezina Trophy finalist, both firsts. Notorious for his slow starts, this season was no exception for Saros, who was 3-6-1 with a .892 save percentage through his first 10 games. He’s 8-3-4 and .927 in 15 games since, going into Tuesday’s game against the first-place Dallas Stars. More of that Saros and less of the former and the odds could begin to shift.
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Matt Duchene
The forward/center, who set the franchise record for goals in a season last season with 43 (12 more than his previous career high), had one in four consecutive games going into the break, including a couple to help wake up the Predators’ pitiful power play. If the 31-year-old continues add to his 10 goals and 16 assists at a rapid pace and live up to his $8-million-per-year contract, good things can happen for Nashville. Which leads to …
Filip Forsberg
The franchise’s leader in career goals finished one behind Duchene last season, despite injuries that cost him 13 games. He was rewarded with an eight-year, $65 million contract last summer. His nine goals and 16 assists aren’t on par with his 2021-22 pace but the streaky forward is capable of putting the team on his back for stretches, which Nashville will need.
Roman Josi
The captain and franchise’s all-time points leader has a way of coming up big in some big moments. Hard to bet against a player like Josi, an annual finalist for the Norris Trophy most years of late.
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