The NFL had no shortage of exciting games on Super Wild Card Weekend, as the first weekend of the league’s postseason lived up to its name. The Jacksonville Jaguars came back from 27 points to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in the most thrilling game of the weekend, while the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys were the lone road teams to snatch victory in the wild card round.
None of the No. 7 seeds were able to beat the No. 2 seeds, making the No. 7 seeds 0-6 since the playoff format expanded in 2020. Even though the games were good, the top seeds were able to take care of business and set up an exciting divisional playoff round.
With six teams having their seasons come to a close and six teams advancing, this is a perfect time for overreactions to the wild card round of the postseason. Which ones are overreactions and which ones are reality?
Dak Prescott is finally a postseason quarterback
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Prescott deserves all the accolades for how he played against the Buccaneers, going 25 of 33 for 305 yards with four touchdowns to zero interceptions — while also rushing for 24 yards and a touchdown — in the Cowboys’ blowout victory. Prescott finished with the highest passer rating (143.3) in a game in Cowboys playoff history (minimum 20 attempts) and became just the fifth quarterback to have four passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown in NFL playoff history.
While the performance was impressive by Prescott, he and the Cowboys need to get past the divisional round in order to earn that reputation as a postseason quarterback. The Cowboys haven’t been to a conference championship game since the 1995 season, but were able to win their first road playoff game in 30 years.
Prescott needs to lead Dallas past the San Francisco 49ers to earn that postseason reputation. A win against the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers doesn’t make one a postseason quarterback.
Tom Brady will not be back with the Buccaneers next season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
The Buccaneers were a disaster on offense throughout the 2022 seaosn, a year which Brady broke the NFL record for completions and attempts. This was Brady’s first losing record in his career as a starter (8-9) and the 18.4 points per game were the fewest for any Brady-led offense.
Tampa Bay was blown out by the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card round, which Brady went 35 of 66 for 351 yards with two touchdowns and one interception (72.2 rating) — and those two touchdowns were when the game was well out of hand.
Head coach Todd Bowles couldn’t seem to help Brady through what was going on with his personal life this season and couldn’t keep the Buccaneers as Super Bowl contenders. Byron Leftwich’s offense definitely struggled with an aging Brady and a poor offensive line, not forgetting the horrible run game and offensive line that couldn’t protect him.
Brady probably doesn’t want to go out like this and he’ll have his options in free agency with better rosters and coaches around him. He could stay in Tampa Bay, but Bowles and Leftwich may both have to go for the Buccaneers to have a chance.
Brandon Staley should not be the head coach of the Chargers next season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
This all depends on if the Chargers can lure Sean Payton into the building, giving him an opportunity to coach Justin Herbert and bring a strong staff to get the most out of their franchise quarterback. Staley isn’t a bad head coach and should get another job, yet it’s hard to justify keeping a coach that plays his starters — and gets them injured — in a meaningless regular season finale and throws the ball more than the team that was trailing by 27 points (a game which the Chargers lost).
This is going to come down to whether owner Dean Spanos wants to pay Staley his contract and Payton a hefty salary to get him to coach the franchise. The Chargers were 10-7 this season and the expectations will be higher with Payton.
This team is talented enough to be one of the best in the AFC. Payton is worth the gamble, especially with a franchise quarterback in Herbert.
Doug Pederson is the best coach the Jaguars ever had
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Pederson already has a playoff win in his first season with the Jaguars. Who would have seen that coming heading into the season, taking over a team with the worst record in the NFL the season prior and possessing the No.1 draft pick? The Jaguars were the first team in NFL history to start 2-6 and win a playoff game and the first team to have the No. 1 draft pick the previous season and win a playoff game.
Remember this is Pederson’s first season, a year after the franchise was in turmoil with Urban Meyer and the laughingstock in the NFL. Six wins would have bene good enough, yet Pederson led the Jaguars to the AFC South title and a playoff victory. He deserves to be in the conversation for best coach in Jaguars history.
That honor still belongs to Tom Coughlin, who had Jacksonville as a Super Bowl contender in the late 1990s and took the team to two AFC Championship Games, including a 36-12 record from 1997 to 1999 with two AFC Central titles. Pederson is entering the conversation with more success by the week.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
This isn’t a knock against Purdy, but the 49ers are a really talented bunch — especially at the skill positions. Christian McCaffrey is such a difference maker in that offense, then add Deebo Samuel and what he brings as a receiver and a runner on top of trying to stop McCaffrey.
The 49ers have George Kittle — who is arguably Purdy’s favorite target — and Brandon Aiyuk to boot. Add in Kyle Shanahan’s zone-run scheme and his ability to get receivers wide open helps Purdy succeed despite the rookie seventh-round pick attached to his name.
Can Purdy carry the 49ers to the Super Bowl? He doesn’t have to quarterbacking in this offense. All Purdy has to do is not turn the football over and allow his playmakers to make plays after the catch. The 49ers also have arguably the best defense in the league as well.
Purdy doesn’t have to win games — nor championships — for San Francisco.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Allen led the NFL in giveaways this season, but the Bills quarterback was improving at not turning the football over late in the season. Prior to Sunday’s game against the Dolphins, Allen had just five giveaways over the last five games — all games Buffalo won.
Those turnover issues came back to haunt Allen Sunday, as he threw two interceptions and lost a fumble. The Dolphins scored 17 points off turnovers to stay alive in a game which they trailed 17-0 — and even took the lead in the second half.
If Allen commits three turnovers against a team not playing its third-string quarterback, the Bills probably lose that game. Allen will hav eto keep the mistakes to a minimum the rest of the way, or the Bills will be going home earlier than expected.
The Dolphins beat the Bills if Tua Tagovailoa played
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Skylar Thompson was 18 of 45 for 220 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions (44.7 rating) in Sunday’s loss to the Bills, so the quarterback play wasn’t good. Tagovailoa led the league in passer rating this year, but who knows if he would have been his early-season self prior to the second concussion he sustained that eventually ended his season?
The Dolphins offense would have been more explosive with Tagovailoa under center and Jaylen Waddle would have been more effective. Mike McDaniel’s clock management was baffling throughout the second half regardless who his quarterback was. Having Tagovailoa under center does make a difference for the Dolphins, even if the offensive line allowed for sacks and 11 quarterback hits.
Perhaps the Dolphins score more than 31 points with Tagovailoa. That many points with Thompson is enough to beat most teams.
Daniel Jones is a franchise quarterback
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
There’s no denying how well Jones played in Sunday’s win over the Vikings, as he finished 24 of 35 for 301 yards and two touchdowns — while also rushing for 78 yards. Jones is the first player in NFL history to throw for 300 yards, rush for 75 yards, and throw for two touchdowns in a playoff game — performances franchise quarterbacks make.
Jones was impressive Sunday, but he was also facing a Vikings defense that was 31st in yards allowed and 31st against the pass. They allowed 2.07 points per possession, which was 27th in the NFL. This wasn’t an elite defense Jones played, facing a 13-win team with a negative point differential.
Jones has made incredible strides this year and deserves a contract extension. Maybe a win over the Eagles and this topic will be revisited.
The Vikings will have a losing record next season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
With the way the Vikings are currently constructed, Minnesota is bound for a regression to the mean. Take away Justin Jefferson and the Vikings offense isn’t as effective thanks to the lack of a No. 2 wide receiver and an offensive line that is below average (and Minnesota is improved).
The Vikings defense needs significant improvements as it was one of the worst in the NFL, especially against the pass. The Green Bay Packers figured things out late in the the season and the Detroit Lions are an up-and-coming team. The NFC North won’t be as easy as in 2022.
Minnesota appears to be the team set to fall. They did win 13 games and had a negative point differential.
J.K. Dobbins is right about not getting the ball
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Dobbins was the Ravens best running back in Sunday’s loss to the Ravens, yet he only had 13 carries in leading the team for 62 yards. Like the timeouts John Harbaugh left on the table, was he saving Dobbins’ carries for next season?
Dobbins has been the best running back on the Ravens since his return in Week 14, rushing for 397 yards and averaging 7.0 yards per carry. The Ravens decided to give Gus Edwards and Tyler Huntley carries in the red zone over Dobbins, who had just one carry for two yards in the red zone (two touches overall).
Harbaugh made some blunders in Sunday’s loss, but the biggest one was not giving Dobbins 20-plus carries. Dobbins was Baltimore’s best chance to score points and he wanted the ball in the postseason. Feed him.
The Bengals offensive line injuries will cost them the AFC
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Cincinnati’s offensive line was a huge reason behind the Bengals finishing 12-2 after an 0-2 start, allowing Joe Burrow and that explosive offense to make plays down the field. The Bengals have lost three of their starting offensive lineman in the past three games, all significant losses for a team looking to get back to the Super Bowl.
Losing La’El Collins for the season was massive and Jonah Williams may be next — which is both of the starting tackles. Alex Cappa takes away some of the ability to run the ball, leaving Cincinnati scrambling to place together the pieces with Buffalo coming up.
The Bills can get to the quarterback and the Kansas City Chiefs were second in the league in sacks. Burrow overcame a poor offensive line last year, but it’s hard to sustain that success two postseasons in a row.
Losing both tackles could spell doomsday for Cincinnati.
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